MTT: Syranussia

MTT

In this month’s Fortune magazine there is an article on billionaire Richard Rainwater who…

…says some pretty far-out things that could easily be taken out of context. Such as: An economic tsunami is about to hit the global economy as the world runs out of oil. Or a coalition of communist and Islamic states may decide to stop selling their precious crude to Americans any day now. Or food shortages may soon hit the U.S. Or he read on a blog last night that there’s this one gargantuan chunk of ice sitting on a precipice in Antarctica that, if it falls off, will raise sea levels worldwide by two feet–and it’s getting closer to the edge…. And then he’ll interrupt himself: “Look, I’m not predicting anything,” he’ll say. “That’s when you get a little kooky-sounding.” [Emphasis added.]

Those can easily be taken out of context! At the risk of sounding “kooky,” let’s do the highlighted one.

First, what does out-of-context-Rainwater mean when he says communist state? Does he mean actual communist states like China, Cuba, Laos, North Korea and Vietnam? (There are but a few.) Or is this some kind of sideways reference to Venezuela? (Taken in context the latter doesn’t make sense, given Chávez’ willingness to work with states and cities to provide cheap oil to poor Americans via Citgo.) So humor me as I take “communist states” to mean “former communist states”; namely Russia.

Consider the following:

1. Syria and Iran forming “a ‘common front’ to face challenges and threats” and Syria being supplied with missiles from Russia.
2. Russia’s willingness to shake things up in the energy markets via their recent muscle flexing in the natural gas market.
3. Iran’s new-year-resolution for ’06: to “start up an ‘oil bourse’, or a stock exchange for trading energy, that will be based on the euro, not the US dollar.”
4. What was the most credible explanation— at least that Your Montag has seen —as to a reason for the Iraq war; which had to do with the threat that Iraq might begin selling oil in euros rather than dollars. [See number 3.]
5. That Russia, among others, would have benefited— in the form of Iraq Oil contracts —from the lifting of UN sanctions against Iraq… If it hadn’t been for that meddling war. [See number 4.]

YOU: Nice ordered list, Montag, but cut to the chase. Where’s your ‘Marginal Theory’ in all of this? What’re you driving at?

ME: That “a coalition of [former] communist and Islamic states may decide to stop selling their precious crude to Americans any day now” isn’t that “kooky-sounding” to me.