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Happy Anniversary, War

This is what I wrote on 1/30/2003 about the then impending war.

We need to be concerned about the pace at which we are moving towards this war. First, there is the fact that Saddam Hussein is an evil and dangerous man. He has had, and probably still has, the weapons of mass destruction that the President mentioned in his address the other night. It may also be speculated, that these weapons are not viable anymore, because of their age, or because Iraq has not had the finances to maintain the arsenal. But, even of this is so, it is also necessary to speculate that Iraq still holds the knowledge of how to make these same weapons. Which would be a renewed problem, for instance, if someone (such as UBL) with the necessary funding were to come along, and have the desire to obtain such weaponry. Add to this the fact that Saddam is an oppressive, power-seeking, evil tyrant who would sacrifice his own people to remain in control, and it must be concluded that Saddam Hussein is an extremely dangerous man who needs to be dealt with sometime, perhaps sooner better than later.

Our current problem is that the US, as led by GWB, has an image problem. It seems that we are perceived by much of the world as the schoolyard bully. Especially when Bush, in his State of the Union speech, with a John Wayne drawl, and with a smirk on his face, speaking about deceased terror suspects says “All told, more than 3,000 suspected terrorists have been arrested in many countries. Many others have met a different fate. Let’s put it this way — they are no longer a problem to the United States and our friends and allies.” This behavior, acted out on the World Stage is utterly embarrassing. This is inexcusable, coming from the so-called ‘leader of the free world.’

The fact is, that Mid-East politics is a very delicate situation, and we conduct ourselves in this area like a bull-in-a-china-shop. Whether you think it is due to extremist propaganda, or otherwise, many Muslims in this part of the world perceive our actions as an attack on their religion and a Holy War. This is mainly because of our stance as loyal ally to Israel, and the perceived motives for our push towards war with Iraq.

Israel is led by Sharon who is a fucking war monger. His record is enough to make the most hardened war criminal blush. He paints the Palestinians as terrorists rather than the oppressed rebels that they are in the eyes of Mid-Eastern Muslims. The Palestinians and their Muslim neighbors can’t help but notice that Sharon’s MO is simply to redraw his map of Israel, bulldoze a neighborhood, cordon off some farm land and declare the area a “Settlement”. This is our ally who we staunchly support. This is the biggest contributor to our image-as-bully in this area of the world.

What are the possible motives for waging war? Oil? To settle some of Daddy’s old scores? Put aside any prejudice or distrust for Bush and the Corporatocracy, and the fact remains, that there is much speculation in the world about our motives. The perception exists that our motives are ulterior. This perception causes problems for our image if we decide to act unilaterally or with Brittan as our only major ally. In light of Brittan’s imperialistic history and how they in the past, managed to really fuck pretty much the whole world up, our alliance with them does little to lend credibility to our cause.

Our cause, by the way, should be to bring “God’s gift to humanity” to the oppressed Iraqi people. Unfortunately, Iraqis won’t buy into this when we leave “peace keepers” there and allow our corporations to divide the spoils.

Wasn’t the motivation of the 9-11 terrorists from Saudi Arabia anger over US forces being in Saudi Arabia? Did they not feel we were insinuating ourselves where we did not belong? That we play a roll in the oppression of their people? Will this sentiment not hold true as we again undertake an overtly aggressive roll in this part of the world? How is it going to look if the US oil industry is profiting by rebuilding Iraq’s oil infrastructure?

The first Gulf War saw relatively few US casualties, but this time it may be worse. It is important to look at the cost of this war to humanity. It has been reported that our strategy as we go into Iraq will be to “unleash hell”: launch a massive and overwhelming air attack on Baghdad that is so relentless, destructive and sustained, that Iraqi military men will lose the will to fight. Shock and Awe.

Think about that.

This doesn’t sound like doing reconnaissance and pinpointing strategic targets for precision strikes. It sounds more like destroying every-fucking-thing in sight.

There are 6.4 million people in Baghdad.

Newsweek reports that the projected civilian death toll is between 45,000 and 250,000. That’s 45,000 people, probably more. Remember, these are the same people that we are meaning to liberate from a homicidal dictator. Granted, Saddam could exacerbate the problem by using hundreds of people as human shields to protect strategic targets, but 45,000?

The death projections are sickening. The US and it’s citizens will be held responsible for the death toll of innocents in the eyes of the world, and of potential terrorists if we act alone.

It is true. Saddam Hussein presents a problem and a threat. To which, there is no easy solution. The Mid-East is a highly volatile area. We need to exercise extreme care. We need the support of many allies, as well as the support of Iraq’s Mid-Eastern neighbors who can contribute credibility to our Freedom Cause in the Muslim world.

The Cowboy is on a war path, and could create worldwide havoc. This will be a World War, in that the effects of it will not be confined within Iraq’s borders. This war could potentially be marked by pandemic infections form biological weapons, terrorist attacks around the globe, and the ecological effects of chemical weapons, burning oil fields and nuclear fallout.

For what? Oil? Bravado? To settle an old score? To make Daddy proud?

It’s kind of embarrassing to look back at this and read it, because it seems so old and I am informed by hindsight now. I am mostly embarrassed about how much I bought into the Saddam threat/WMD/potential terrorist link thing. I should have been thinking more critically. Despite that, though, I, and almost everybody I was talking to at the time, both red and blue were against the war or were at least uneasy about it. Funny how things have changed. The blue folks are more against the war today, while the red folks are more or less enthusiastic about how it’s gone.

I was scared shitless about the WMD threat because I had listened to the debate in congress in October of 02. They were the one’s who made the most terrifying statements about Saddam and, as it turns out, some of the most outrageous claims about his capabilities. My fear stemmed from open and “bi-partisan” exchanges like this one between Lieberman and Warner which I remember just as if it were yesterday.

Mr. LIEBERMAN. I thank the Senator. Our colleague from Indiana is waiting to speak, but I want to just very briefly say to you again what you know–and I hope to put some testimony into the RECORD–about the devastating biological weapons that Saddam possesses, some for which we do not have an effective cure or have an effective response.

I hesitate to even say this, but I think to show the seriousness of what we are about, I know there has been a lot of discussion: Does Saddam have nuclear weapons? How soon will he have them? Will it be 10 years or 1 year or 5 years?

But does the Senator agree with me that the biological weapons capacity Saddam has now, if delivered by an unmanned aerial vehicle, could do far more damage–I am talking about death to people–than the kind of primitive nuclear weapon he might have in a year at best, 5 years, 10 years?

In other words, the danger is here. It is clear and present, and it is now.

Mr. WARNER. Madam President, the Senator is so correct in his views. We know not what he might be able to build. Frankly, we do not know a great deal about what he has today by way of nuclear capacity. The best knowledge that is in the open is that he does not have a finished weapon, but we do not know whether it is 6 months, 6 years, or what time it may be.

But that might be a single weapon or maybe two, whereas the biological, in small containers, can be multiplied 100 times over in 100 different locations. Therefore, the tragic death and injury to Americans or others–as a matter of fact, we keep focusing on this Nation. There are other nations that stand at peril to this dictator.

I must conclude to stay within the allocation of time. I say to my friend, I look forward to our further debates on the floor. But I close by saying this vote which we will cast here has to be a vote of conscience, not influenced in any way by political considerations. And above all in our hearts and minds will be the men and women of the Armed Forces who will undoubtedly bear the burden if it is necessary to use force. May God bless them.

Quoted from the Senate Congressional Record

Despite having heard stuff like this for months. I was still opposed to our invading Iraq without the support of the UN, and when the inspectors were finding and destroying banned missiles, and were expressing doubts about whether they would find WMDs or not. At the time, the inspectors inability to find said weapons, worked as proof that Saddam had weapons and was defying the world by hiding them. Hmmm. Fear– pumped up by our leaders in Congress– caused many to accept this war.

As a wise old philosopher said “Fear is the path to the dark side… fear leads to anger… anger leads to hate.. hate leads to suffering.” (Hey, if the feds can respond to 9-11 by bringing novelists and Hollywood directors in to consult on potential terrorist tactics, I can quote Yoda.)

Just days before bombs rained on Baghdad, I wrote this about ‘Shock and Awe’:

“Rapid Dominance” is the military term for our strategy to begin operation Iraqi Freedom. The first strikes will likely begin at night with B-2 stealth bombers and F-117 stealth fighters dropping as many as 3000 bombs and missiles in the first 24 hours. The goal: “leave Iraqi troops with bleeding eardrums and mouthfuls of sand,” and sap their will to fight. Targets will be in and around the cities of Baghdad and Tikrit.

Remember Saddam had threatened his own people not to leave Baghdad. So, it would seem the people of Iraq, (the ones we are going to liberate,) are in between a rock and a hard place. The following link is to some snapshots of everyday Iraqi people. Something to think about when we begin hearing about civilian casualties and “collateral damage.” Please look.

To “deter and overpower an adversary through the adversary’s perception and fear of his vulnerability and our own invincibility. This ability to impose massive shock and awe, in essence to be able to ‘turn the lights on and off’ of an adversary as we choose, will so overload the perception, knowledge and understanding of that adversary that there will be no choice except to cease and desist or risk complete and total destruction.” –Harlan Ullman, defense intellectual, former Navy head of extended planning, and teacher at the National War College.

There are those in Iraq who have nothing to lose. There are also those who still have everything to lose, including their innocence. Never forget.

This is what I was reading at the time as well:

Two years later many thousands of Iraqis are dead. Are the ones that survived better off? Over 1500 US soldiers are dead. Are we in the US safer? No WMD were found. Are they now ‘out in the open’, or on the black market, or did they even exist in the first place? Saddam Hussein is in jail. Is HW proud of W? Now that Saddam isn’t able to support terrorists, is al-Qaeda weakened? Will we now be able to exploit Iraq’s oil completely for US? If so, how long will it last? Have we bought ourselves any time as Empire Supreme? Has our leadership’s war machine with it’s giant propaganda appendage plunged us deeper into the abyss of Fascism? It’s been two years, how much longer do we have to figure this stuff out?

-Montag

==Update 3.24.05==

Baghdad Burning – Wednesday, March 23, 2005 – Two Years…

Riverbend writes about what it was like to be shocked and awed.

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